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FACTBOX:
What next in Zimbabwe's political crisis?
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HARARE(August
14,2008) - Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe and
MDC opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai have failed to agree on a
power-sharing government after three days of talks in Harare.
South African President Thabo Mbeki said agreement had been reached
between Mugabe and breakaway MDC faction leader Arthur Mutambara.
Below are some questions and answers on Zimbabwe's political uncertainty.
WHAT DEAL HAS BEEN DONE?
It is still unclear. Although Mbeki said agreement had been reached
with Mutambara, he was unsure whether anything had been signed. A
top official of Mugabe's ZANU-PF party said it had been signed, but
a spokesman for Mutambara's faction of the Movement for Democratic
Change denied that.
WHAT COULD AN INCOMPLETE DEAL MEAN?
Political analysts say such an agreement would not end Zimbabwe's
post-election political crisis and is likely to damage confidence
further in an economy groaning under the world's highest inflation
rate of 2.2 million percent.
Lack of a unified political leadership could make it even harder to
ease chronic food, fuel and foreign currency shortages and rescue
a virtually worthless local currency.
IS THERE A CHANCE FOR A COMPREHENSIVE DEAL?
Mbeki said he was confident a solution was possible and Tsvangirai
was still considering his position. The South African leader said
he was willing to stay in Zimbabwe for six months to help reach a
settlement.
The magnitude of the divisions may become clearer when Mbeki briefs
a weekend summit in South Africa of the regional group of nations
SADC, which mandated him to mediate.
WILL TALKS RESUME SOON?
Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party and MDC negotiators are expected to
return to South Africa for secret talks to try to iron out outstanding
issues.
WHAT ARE MUGABE'S PLANS?
Mugabe, in power since 1980, is expected to convene parliament next
week, and appoint a cabinet that includes some opposition figures,
possibly including some from Tsvangirai's mainstream MDC.
Mugabe's aides say the government must continue functioning, but the
formation of a new cabinet could scupper or delay further talks with
the opposition.
HAS MUGABE'S DEAL WITH MUTAMBARA WEAKENED TSVANGIRAI?
Tsvangirai's dominant opposition MDC is expected to press its numerical
advantage in parliament, and its members will take up their seats
there in order to stop the ruling ZANU-PF from passing legislation
that could work against its interests.
HOW INFLUENTIAL IS MUTAMBARA?
Political sources say a unilateral decision by Mutambara to agree
a deal with Mugabe could alienated allies in his own MDC faction and
that could weaken his internal standing.
The former robotics professor's 10 parliament seats would give the
coalition the majority in parliament that ZANU-PF lost in March elections
for the first time since independence, but excluding Tsvangirai is
unlikely to heal Zimbabwe's deep rift.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS?
They are likely to become even more cautious. Foreign investors don't
want to get their cues from the twists and turns of murky negotiations.
They are looking for a government that could bring stability and end
isolation.
Political analysts say Mugabe has used nationalisation of foreign
companies as well as the seizure of land as a political weapon.
IS THE ECONOMY ABOUT TO TAKE ANOTHER HIT?
Despite a redenomination that removed 10 zeroes, the Zimbabwe dollar
has tumbled on a thriving black market in the last week and is seen
losing further ground against the greenback as the political deadlock
drags on.
HAS MUGABE SUCCEEDED IN FURTHER DIVIDING THE OPPOSITION?
The opposition might suffer more divisions in its ranks if some of
its officials take up posts in a new cabinet without considering if
Tsvangirai intends to get on board.
CAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES FORCE A DEAL?
Both SADC and the African Union (AU) are expected to continue piling
diplomatic pressure on Mugabe and Tsvangirai to reach a power-sharing
agreement. SADC has taken a tougher line with Mugabe but Mbeki has
long held the view that pushing the defiant leader too far will only
aggravate tensions.
HOW WILL MUGABE'S WESTERN FOES RESPOND?
If there is no agreement in coming weeks, Western powers, including
Britain and the U.S., which have imposed sanctions on Mugabe's government,
may consider more punitive measures against ZANU-PF leaders.
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