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Ethiopian grain production
to decline due to climate change |
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ADDIS
ABEBA(December 11,2008) - Reduced food production
is predicted in Ethiopia as a result of climate change, according
to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
IFPRI said it was true that climate is playing its ugly faces leading
to higher food prices and making food less affordable for poor people.
And in Ethiopia, it said both water supply and cereal grain production
would decline even under a very moderate climate change scenario,
where higher rainfall is expected.
Entitled: How can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? Insights
from Ethiopia and South Africa, the study conducted in regional states
of Ethiopia where the Nile River Basin covers.
"In this particular religion of the country, over 64 percent
of households perceived an increase in temperature over the last 20
years, and 65 percent perceived a decline in rainfall," the study
said.
The study said the, generally, increased frequency of droughts and
floods negatively affect agricultural production, demonstrating agriculture's
sensitivity to climate change.
It added that the region's exposure to climate change is represented
by the predicted change in temperature and rainfall by 2050.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC),
a region's vulnerability to climate change depends on its adaptive
capacity, sensitivity, and exposure to changing climatic patterns.
The study further predicted an increase in temperature by 2050 for
Afar and Tigray regions greatly and lowest for Southern Nations, Nationalities,
and Peoples' State (SNNPS).
It said change in precipitation by 2050 would be the highest for Somali
region and lowest for SNNPS.
The study was conducted using the International Model for Policy Analysis
of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model.
The study also provided insights into the ability of poor farmers
and livestock herders-who will likely bear the brunt of climate change-to
adapt to climate-related shocks, especially drought and long-term
global warming.
According to the study, Ethiopia's vulnerability to climate change
goes hand-in-hand with poverty, although some regions of the country
are more vulnerable than others, namely, Afar, Somali, Oromia, and
Tigray.
Afar and Somali regions are at greater risk to the negative consequences
of climate change due to their poor infrastructure and rural services,
including lack of access to technology, pesticides, fertilizers, and
improved seeds.
Households in Tigray and Oromia are more vulnerable due to relatively
frequent droughts and floods, poor access to technology, and limited
infrastructure.
In contrast, Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's State is
deemed least vulnerable because of the region's relatively greater
access to technology and markets, larger irrigation potential, and
higher literacy rate, the study noted.
It added that Beneshangul Gumuz "is relatively less vulnerable
due mainly to better access to information and technology and less
frequent floods and drought." |
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